Notice:The opinions and\or statements made in this column are my opinions. I am not a professional analyst. The conclusions I reach are for my own investment situation only. They are offered solely for general information. Each person's financial situation is highly unique to that person; and you should follow the advice of your own financial consultants in making investment decisions.
Any links to other web sites are for the visitor's benefit. I cannot vouch for the accuracy or guarantee any of the content of other web sites. Please email me if you find any other web site link with content inappropiate for visitors to this web site.
January 1st, 2000 Edition
- February 21st - I haven't been able to access my edit pages to update my web page since the last update of 1/5/00. Right now I am in the middle of too many things to do; and then take off for Boston for the rest of this week. I will try to make an update during the week of 2/27/00.
Update - January 5th - I have posted the 1999 Stock Contest results on this page. Click on 1999 Stock Contest. The report on portfolios is also posted in the Investment Lab Page. Click on 1999 Final Portfolio Report. The individual sections will be posted later when I have time.
Update - January 3rd - I just have time to say Hello to all my viewers and wish you a prosperous New Year. I have managed to pull off the year-end figures for all the test portfolios shown in the Investment Lab; but am too busy right now to set up the results.....The results are simply astounding in some of the portfolios. As you know, I have a great preference for Yahoo! in my personal investments and in some of the various test portfolios. If I had invested in Yahoo! just one year earlier in my own account, I would be worth over $2,000,000.00 right now!! Such is the nature of this amazing stock market we are experiencing.
I will be posting the results of our 1999 Stock Contest shortly. The winner is Yahoo! with a 265% return on the year. However, it was a real shootout with Tiffany coming in with a 244% return and Global Crossings with a 201% return on the year. The return for all stocks in the contest was a healthy 57.76% return on the 39 entries in the contest.
As for the NASDAQ market in 1999; all I can say is WOW!......What is ahead for 2000?....Well, the bulls are going to be stampeding out the gate to start the year. Mr Greenspan has his work cut out for him in trying to restrain this locomotive bull market.
>Update - December 1st - Here we are in December of1999, just before the dawn of the new millennium. I have enjoyed my best ever year financially; which seems a little strange when you consider that most of us were looking toward the end of this year with a lot of uncertainty. The question now is: "What happens in the year 2000?)Well, personally, I look forward to the year as one of outstanding opportunities for financial gain; if you keep attuned to market trends during the year. I look for a period of volatility during the first month of January, and then a rather strong market afterward. Now we all know that the stock market cannot do what most people anticipate...because that would lead to markets with either too many buyers or too many sellers. So the challenge of Wall Street will be to weave their magic of market data in order to confuse and startle individuals. So the 1st qtr of 2000 promises to keep us all on pins and needles. In my case, I am basically a long term investor, so I will be riding out what ever comes to pass.
Click on the underlined titles below to go to the Oke Web Page for Seniors:
Click on underlined titles below
January 1st Edition January 1st Edition Oke Web Page for Seniors - Play Edition Oke Web Page for Seniors-Work Edition
Click on underlined titles below
January 1st Edition Pages January 1st Edition Pages Internet page Travel Page Computer Page Golf Page and Sports Investment page Bridge Page Health&Diet Page Family Background Page Contra Costa News Page Special Subjects Page Home Page Home Page Oke Investment Lab Oke Investment Lab
1999 Sport Event Championship Update
Under our new setup, all sport contests will be featured on the 15th of the month edition; or on Contests 1999 Page. The next event is The Kentucky Derby scheduled on May 1st. I will be adding entries in the next week. Then start thinking about your race car for the Indy 500 on Memorial Day.
WE HAVE A WINNER in our abbreviated sports contest for 1999.....and the winner is.......Shirley Hilton. Shirley is the director of the Lions' Club Program for the Blind in Pleasant Hill. She topped the field with 30 points, just edging out the Guys from Winchells who came in with 29 points(now how close can you get!) We had a tie for 3rd place with my son Jim and Ron Hayes coming in with 17 points. I am going to try to get on the ball to start a contest for the new millennium; but no promises, as my life is rather hectic yet.)
Here is the Sport Event Schedule for 1999, along with the dates Event Activities will be shown:
- Jan - Rose Bowl Game - done
- Jan - Super Bowl - done
- Feb - ATT Tournament at Pebble Beach - done
- Apr 08-11 - Masters from Augusta - See Golf&Sport Page
- May - Kentucky Derby - Will be shown on April 15th
- May - Indy 500 - Will be shown on May 15th
- Jun - US Open Golf Championship - Will be shown on June 15th
- Aug - PGA Open Championship
- Oct - World Series
- Nov - Skins Game
You can check the results of the 1998 Contests by clicking on the underlined title below:Contest Results, Points and Standings - 1999
Contest Results, Points and Standings - 1998
This web site has two editions which are published as follows:
- Portfolio Edition - During 1-15th days of month
- News Edition - During 15-31st days of month
- Oke Investment Lab - Updates throughout the month
Click on the underlined title below for Oke Investment Lab:
Oke Investment Lab
Here is how to contact me with your suggestions, opinions and references to my web site:
My E-mail address: califoak@pacbell.net
You can just click on the MAILBOX ICON at bottom of this page. CONTROL key plus END key will take your to bottom of this page.
My telephone number is 925-937-3200
Or leave a message in my Guest Book. Just click on the underlined title below:
Click here and tell me which subjects you like.
Table of Contents
- Commentary and Current Articles
- Links to investment articles of interest to our readers
- Hot New Investment Web Sites
- Technical and Fundamental Investment Indicators and Links
- Check out 1999 Stock Contest Standings - See Link Below
- Links to investment periodicals on Web - See Link Below
Links to Investment Periodicals
Section One - Commentary and Current Articles
March 15th, 1999 - Income Tax Management
One of the best reasons for investing in individual stocks, rather than buying mutual funds, is control of your income tax rates. With mutual funds, you get your distributions whether you want them or not. In buying individual stocks, you can make the up front decision of whether you want to buy stocks with yields or stocks that only provide capital gains(or losses). Then you can manage your portfolio by selling off losers quickly and letting your winners ride. In my own case, I have pretty well adopted a strategy of buying top momentum stocks with long term prospects. This doesn't mean that every purchase is the right one. As we all know, stocks can do funny things at any particular time. Sometimes, you buy a quality stock, only to see it fall off its recent high like a rock. I experienced this with Yahoo! It went up to over $400.00 a share, only to drop to less then $225.00 within the next month(pre-split price). Now I am in Yahoo! for the long term. I expect to see this type of volatility in this stock's future; but I have a strong faith in this stock and will "ride this pony" until I see evidence of a fundamental deficiency developing. But, on the other hand, I have just sold two stocks from my own portfolio that have "dropped off the wagon." These stocks, Peoplesoft and Egghead, now represent short term capital losses in my 1999 taxes. I can now sell off a stock with a short term capital gain, or use to offset the loss against a long term capital gain. Or, in the event I don't have any capital gains to report in 1999, I can take a capital loss creditup to $3,000. and carry any balance over to the next year. You should take the time to throughly understand how taxes are applied on your stock investments. Here is an article link from the San Jose Mercury News to help you out:
Use losses to offset your costliest gains (2/06/1999)
Commentary - March 1st - I'm still taking most of my free time setting up this new format. HTML coding requires endless changes when switching to a new format when there are so many pages involved. I'm sure there are some bad links on some of my pages; please take the time to let me know of them. One thing about being busy with setting up my pages is I don't have time to check my financial standing in the stock market lately.
Here is a new test portfolio I am setting up to highlight specific stocks for the new millennium. All of the starting picks are already major companies in their field; but I wanted to put emphasis on the stocks that appear to have special strength going into the new century. In picking the ten stocks, I tried to balance the picks between the major sectors that will dominate the trend toward aworld economy. Of course, the computer and internet stocks are the leading picks due to their powerful momentum as new sectors changing the way the world will operate in the future. I couldn't come up with a dominent financial stock that would be the leader in the world economy at this time.
My list is highly subjective, a product of my own research to date. Your list undoubtedly would be different. Again, the most important point is to pick stocks YOU believe will be the leaders into the next century. All of the stocks on such a list should be holdings for at least five years of a bull scenario market(that is, until events occur that would mean the end to the bull market.)
My picks for the top millennium stocks after 01/01/2000 are as follows:
- 1. Yahoo
- 2. Microsoft
- 3. Fed EXP
- 4. GE
- 5. Am Exp
- 6. Intel
- 7. Walmart
- 8. Disney
- 9. AIG
- 10. Dell
All of the above stocks will show a opening price of 12/31/98, so they will have a common date for comparision purposes. You can check the monthly results of this portfolio in the Investment Lab.
Section Two - Links to Timely Investment Articles
This new feature will link the most interesting articles on the web of interest to investors. One problem will be the period of time the links will be active. In some cases you might have to search the archives at the home site of the publication.
Here are links for March 15th Edition:
CBS MarketWatch - Big Cap Stocks: Discipline dominates Enterprise Growth Fund
CBS MarketWatch - Superstar Funds: The darkside of market timing
Salon 21st | In defense of day traders
INVESTools: Trusted Advice for Independent Investors
Let's get started with the following selections for March 1st Edition:
Kiplinger.com: Books: World Boom Ahead
Forbes (3-8-99) Property Strategies Property strategies
U.S. News: How aging will challenge the world's economic well-being (3/1/99)
Forbes (2-22-99) Financial strategy Buy zeros now
The next selection features links to top news stories of leading publications each day:
Slate Magazine - Table of Contents
Section Three - Hot New Investment Web Sites
This is the place each month for the lastest investment web sites. The number and variety of investment sites on the web provides a rich resource to all investors.
March Picks
This month I thought we would take a look at some Silicon Valley Web sites. There is no denying the strength of hi-tech stocks in the stock market. These sites will give you more insight into this area of stocks:
SiliconValley.com: Companies: Investing
SiliconValley.com: Columns Home Page
Interview with Walid Mougayar from Business 2.0 on the B2Index.
Section Four - Economic Indicator Data and Links
This section will cover data and links on economic data and information. The following link will go to my own page where I hope to develop some new approaches to looking at what the market is telling us. There are plenty of sources for traditional stock analysis in printed and on the Internet; but I will try to see what my portfolios are telling me about my own needs for indicators:
Here are some web sites that provide valuable data in times of market instability. However, I would caution my readers to NOT depend on such indicators too much this year due to the build up of hysteria we will probably experience as 1999 comes to a close. However, it is still important to know the underlying strength of the economy, because that is what will ultimately determine the strength of the stock market. Your biggest challenge, in my estimation, will be how to handle the last four months of 1999. If you check in here, you will get my uptodate thoughts on what's happening and what I am doing for my own situation(each person's financial situation is unique to that person and you should check with your financial advisor before making any move.) Now check these sites by clicking on the undlined titles:
The Economic Statistics Briefing Room
TCB's Business Cycle Indicators
Warning! The next link is causing me to lose my Netscape connection. No big problem...I just have to reopen the connection. Let me know how your computer is responding to this interesting site
An Economic Information and Economic Analysis Web Site: The Dismal Scientist
How will the CPI be affected by its upcoming revision?
Section Five - 1999 Stock Contest Notes
The 39 stocks in the 1999 Stock Contest held up well in the volatile market over the last two weeks in February. We end up with a YTD average gain of 8.35%. On an annualized basis, that would produce a 50% return. The leader at this point is Schwab Brokerage, with Yahoo! close behind. Spectram is right in there too. Here is how our stocks compare to the major indexes on YTD basis:
- Dow-Jones Industrials -- 01.38%
- Nasdaq Composite ------- 04.35%
- S&P 500 ---------------- 00.74%
- Our 1999 Stock Contest - 08.35%
Check out the latest standings as of the end of February by clicking on the underlined title below:
February 15th Comment
Easy come - Easy go - That's the story of the first month and half into 1999. We started the year with a big gain of 17% in the first two weeks; then down to only 12.41% return at the end of January....now at the mid-way point in February we are down to a 3.69% gain for the portfolio. Now 3.69% might now sound too great, but if you multiply it by 8 to get the annualized gain, it comes out to 29.52%.
Yahoo! got pushed out of the top spot by The Guys from Winchells. Their pick of Spectram is showing a gain of 30.15% compared to 27.46% gain for Yahoo! LaMar Jansen's pick of DELL Computer is in third place with a 22.80% gain.
Compare the stocks this year to the list for 1998. Just click on the underlined title below for listing:
Section Six - Top Business News Magazines Web Sites
Check out the latest news and information from the leading business publications on the Web:
Now just click on the subjects below and go to that page:
Click on underlined titles below
January 1st Edition Pages January 1st Edition Pages Internet page Travel Page Computer Page Golf Page and Sports Investment page Bridge Page Health&Diet Page Family Background Page Contra Costa News Page Special Subjects Page Home Page Home Page Oke Investment Lab Oke Investment Lab
Here is how to contact me with your suggestions, opinions and references to my web site:
My E-mail address: califoak@pacbell.net
Or you can just click on the letter icon at bottom of this page to send me a message.
Or leave a message in my Guest Book by clicking on the underlined sentence below:
Sign my guestbook and tell me which subjects you like.
My Telephone Number: Allan Oke(oak) at 925-937-3200
This page has been accessed
times.
This page was last updated on February 21, 2000