Updates and Announcements
Update December 31st, 1999 - The final results for my Portfolio Listings have been updated thru 12/31/99. The individual reports on the three sections of portfolio report will follow when I have time.
This last six months before the millennium make tor all the drama of a "TV soap series." Will the market make a third quarter correction like 1998? Will the 4th Qtr be "white knuckle time?". Time will be the only way we answer those questions. But, my read on this next two years is:
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN IN OUR INVESTMENTS THEN EVER BEFORE IN OUR LIVES.
I am approaching this period of time with great enthusiam and intend to be well positioned to take advantage of that opportunity as it unfolds. In that regard, here are some of the projects and studies I am conducting to help me better respond to the opportunities as they develop over the next couple of years, in particular.
Current Projects to Track Stock Market
To Check General Health of Market
- Number of stocks making new lows on NYSE under 40
- Support levels for major market indexes
- Checking and monitoring daily commodity prices
- Tracking top industry groups:
- This week
- Last week
- Three months ago
- Tracking Industry Grps - Stocks Highest No. of New 52 Wk Highs
- Tracking Option Totals:
- By exchange - No of calls and Puts - Calls have it for now.
- By top index option volume
- By top volume stocks - puts and calls
I hope to be able to incorporate some new monthly features to help my readers sift out all this data to help understand why the market is doing doing at certain times.
Update - July 12 - Incidentally, I just am too busy to produce my Portfolio Reports right now. However, they all are performing in line with previous results, with most down a small percentage from the previous report. I haven't had time to look at them, so it is amazing to me to see how well they are doing without any "baby sitting." One thing I am learning about my trading portfolios is that you don't need 100 stocks to maintain stability as long as the bull market is in effect. Since I am a very strong bull on the next five years, I have no problem with the seasonal ups and downs.
Notice:The opinions and\or statements made in: Oke Investment Lab, are my opinions. I am not a professional analyst. The conclusions I reach are mainly for my own investment situation. They are offered to you for general information. Each person's financial situation is highly unique to that person; and you should follow the advice of your own financial consultants in making investment decisions.
Any links to other web sites are for the visitor's benefit. I cannot vouch for the accuracy or guarantee any of the content of other web sites. Please email me if you find any other web site link with content inappropiate for visitors to this web site.
Oke Investment Club
We have set up a Yahoo Club for use as a messageboard and chat line. You will need to register and use password to take part in discussions. Just click on the link below and then click on the title. When you reach the site, just type in the name of the club in the Search box:
We now have the perfect place to share our opinions. Here is the place to discuss your stock picks and give your opinions. Just click on the underlined title below:
Oke Web Page Forum for Seniors
Test Portfolios Results and Report Center
We are starting the new year with a new format for showing the results of 39 test portfolios; and reporting on the makeup and status of them, including the leading gainers and losers. All of this data will be kept on separate sheets with links provided below. Bear with me as I smooth out the layout and display of this material. Again, I feel that I am still one year away to where my portfolios will have matured to the point where they will provide solid data. In the meantime, you can gain lot's of insight by seeing how the various portfolios perform under various market conditions. So join me in this adventure by clicking on the underlined titles below:
First, take a look at each month's results here:
Investment Lab Portfolio results for period ending December 31st, 1999
Then read the latest report on the leading gainers and losers; and all the latest news on each portfolio here:
Update - April 08 - All the March Portfolio Reports are now posted. Just click on the underlined titles below:
Report on Trading Portfolios PE 04/01/99
Section One - Commentary and Current Articles Update July 12th - Education Dept!! - As followers of this web page know, Yahoo! is my number 1 stock. So I follow it closely and keep up with all the news, etc. So when I purchased 200 "PLAY" shares in each of my four test percentage portfolios, I thought I had a pretty good chance at a "fast buck." Well, sure enough, I bought the shares at 156.50 each on June 29th and on July 5th the quote was 178.13 for a total gain of $17,304.00. But buying is only the first step in making a gain on Wall Street.....you have to sell the stock to realize a gain!! Well, July 5th was two days befoe the earnings report was to be reported(after the close of the market.) So, since there hadn't been a hint of any bad news indicated by Yahoo! and knowing how street smart the mgt is; I felt certain that Yahoo! would easily beat the concenses estimate of eight cents a share; so I decided "to let it ride." Well, the stock went up three dollars a share in the after market that day. The next day it ended up down about five bucks a share. OK, I decided to let it ride for the next day. It came back a couple of bucks. The next day it was down again. I finally decided to get out while I had some gain to realize. I sold the shares on July 9th for 162.13 a share for a final profit of $4,504.00, less 160.00 in trading costs. What is the moral of this story? It is that Wall Street must always find a way to make the probable unprobable....otherwise the market cannot operate efficiently.
Update July 5th - Finally able to get back to my web page, after the last couple of months taken up by buying a condo and establishing a new life style. Over the last month I have renewed my subscription to Investors' Business Daily and am finding the newspaper supplying the data that fits very well into my own investment approach. Every issue has articles that provide me the knowledge I need to develop for the new millennium in sorting out the market opportunities for the new century. Now, this does not mean that I plan to become a "day trader" because I firmly remain committed to buy and hold for long term. However, there is a continual process of refining and adjusting my porfolio which requires selling stocks each year to take capital gains; and the need to make adjustments for seasonal patterns in the market. In addition, I am still developing strategies for my IRA Acct in which more trading would seem to be indicated.
I have also been developing a financial plan for managing cash flow and spending limits in connection with my annual personal budget. I have come up with a plan that I think will work very well for me at my age of 69 years. That is, simply use the mortgage rate tables to base my spending each year based on my financial standing each year. Here is how it works once you have established a level of savings which allow for some withdrawal of funds:
Take the mortgage rates for the number of years you want to amortize your savings. Now when you buy a home, you take out a 30 yr mortage and at the end of 30 yrs you own the home free and clear. However, you can use the same tables and figure a percentage rate based on your expected average yearly rate of return on your portfolio. Theorically, you will then have set up a yearly spending plan that is in line with your total savings. Each year you will spend at the rate you are adding to your savings. Here is how it works using the 30 year mortage rates at 6% interest:
- $100,000. in savings would equal 600.00 a month
- $200,000. in savings would equal 1,200.00 a month
- So for each 100,000 in savings you could add 600.00
Here is how the table would work for other interest rate charts:
- For each 100,000 at 7% it would be 665.00
- For each 100,000 at 8% it would be 734.00
- For each 100,000 at 9% it would be 805.00
- For each 100,000 at 10% it would be 878.00
Now you could change this formula different ways from protecting your principal, to gradually lower the amount of savings based on your age and life expectancy.
Again, I remind you that I am not a licensed financial planner or expert. Any plan you develop should be checked out with your own financial advisors.
Incidently, I couldn't resist adding Yahoo! to each of my Percentage Portfolios, 10% 15% 20% and 30%. As you know I have closed each of those "Play" portfolios for their current years, because each has obtained their stated objective. But as I follow Yahoo! so closely in my own personal portfolio, I couldn't resist adding 200 shares to each of those portfolios last week. I bought a total of 800 shares at 156.50 each. The current price is 178.13 so I have realized over 4,000.00 in each portfolio, so far. The question becomes when to sell those shares? Well, I am very confident that Yahoo will beat their estimate of eight cents a share for quarter ending June 30th(they are very smart people at Yahoo.) If there would have been a hint of bad news it would have been indicated by now. Anyway, Yahoo always reports their earnings promtly during the first week after the quarter ends. It has been announced that their earning report will be given on July 7th, Wednesday. So I am going let it ride until then. Each penny(can you believe) makes a big difference on how the market reacts to the report. 9-10 cts would be pretty well expected. 11-12 would be good; 13-14 would be terrific; and 15 cts would be let it ride some more. It will be very interesting to see how it all turns out.
Click on the underlined title for Investment Lab Archives:
Investment Lab Archives-#4
This page has been accessed
times.
This page was last updated on January 05, 2000