"This is a very interesting thought but what is the thinking behind the whole idea, please could you fill me in,"
-Terry Brown ( terry@formby.demon.co.uk )
(posted to usenet July 2, 1997)

 "The thinking is that if you get enough people looking up expecting to see something on the same night, then a bunch of them are going to imagine or claim that they see UFOs. It's a short lesson in mass psychology."
-Herb Tyson ( tyson@norloff.com )
(posted to usenet July 3, 1997)

 "The same thing happens with sickness. Hypochondriacs THINK they are sick, and can sometimes exhibit actual symptoms without even having the disease. The UFO sighting may be similar. Which does not discount the existence of UFOs and UFO sightings... but not all are genuine."
-David Haughton
( email address removed per his request )
(posted to usenet July 3, 1997)

 I don't believe this to be true. I am sure that some will be influenced in this way, but the vast majority will not. The more suggestible are just as likely to believe that UFO flaps can not be predicted because they are convinced that UFO activity is due to alien covert operations. They would already believe that they know the true nature of the phenomena and wouldn't be open to other possibilities.

 The scoffers above were no doubt so sure that there is no basis in predicting UFO appearances that they chose not to argue the point directly. These skeptics may believe that most witnesses are suggestible because they are themselves suggestible (although the source of what influences them may be different).

 Science would say there is nothing to UFOs because aliens are almost definitely not visiting this planet. As a result anyone who witnesses a UFO and believes it to have been not from our normal planetary experience are just wishful thinkers (or worse). Even if we have or will be visited by non-human beings, the chances of it happening now are minute and therefore they say such reasoning is still valid. Contradicting these views is a substantive core of UFO sighting data that strongly points to the possibility of advanced non-human appearances within our present reality. If the typical arguments of skeptical scientists were true the little known findings of Project Blue Book's Special Report Number 14, that found a significantly higher number of true unknown flying objects among the more credible witnesses, could not be true. 

Wouldn't credible witnesses also have a more open mind to new possibilities? Let me discuss a new possibility. As does UFO researcher and author John Keel, I believe that we at times experience visitations of an intelligence that is normally beyond our perception. They share the same space as we do but, because of our being in a much different dimension of reality, normally do not perceive their existance. If these intelligences have been here for thousand of years, but for the most part undetected, then they are not visitors, but co-inhabitants. From their perspective, we could be the interlopers.

 My theory is that we more directly experience each other during times of heightened geomagnetic disruptions which interfere with the barriers between our different dimensions. In my scenario there is both random and periodic fluctuations in this field. Predicting these changes is difficult due to there being several causes of the fluctuations. These apparent trigger mechanisms are most likely due to changes in solar radiation output and the lunar gravitational pull (at key times during their periodic cycles), sudden changes in the wobble of the earth on its axis, sudden build-ups of tectonic stresses or a combination of all of these. There is also a possibility of causes linked to emanations from beyond our solar system. All of these proposed factors may also parallel the appearances of droughts, earthquakes, strange weather, and cryptozoological anomalies such as bigfoot and misplaced animal sightings (even misplaced or disappearances of people). With all of this said we can now move on to my article to see if UFO flaps can be predicted:

In my past articles in the MUFON Journal I've referred to cycles measured in months and years, but there is at least one other cycle measured in days that was proposed by truth seeker and author John Keel. Mr. Keel is one of the more entertaining writers who has spent a good deal of time investigating UFOs.

In his 1970 book "Operation Trojan Horse"
(reprinted in 1996 without the original bibliography, but as of August 2001, is out of print again) he proposed a cycle of seven days or multiples of that to explain a noteworthy increase of sightings on Wednesday in the reports that he collected for 1966 and 1967 (particularly in March of those years when sightings were quite pronounced).

I have investigated this possible cycle and there does seem to be a correlation with Wednesday and increased sightings of UFOs in the past few years (again for some reason during the month of March). However, there have been many years where this has not been the case and in my opinion this "Wednesday Phenomena" is not directly linked to "true" UFOs.

The controversial figure Bob Lazar has stated that while working at Area 51, purportedly back-
engineering the propulsion systems of captured flying saucers, he learned that such experimental or ultra secret aircraft were most often flown in the middle of the week (since most air transportation dealing with civilian passengers were less frequent during this time). This would seem to indicate that the increase that appears at times on Wednesday is due to such flights and not to non-human manned aerial objects.

On the other hand, I do believe there to be a seven day cycle, yet not exactly that figure. From my research I have found at least one cycle of just under seven days or a multiple of that. Evidence of this cycle is most noticeable during periods of high activity and shows up in the sighting report data beginning in late 1994 and still appears to be noteworthy at this time.

For example, Arizona had many dramatic sighting reports of a very large UFO for a few days in mid March of this year. The most reported series occurred on March 13th But these sightings actually started on March 10th and lasted a few days. Another dramatic series of sightings occurred in Texas on May 5 (check out the top of the home page for NUFORC for details related to both of these events). There were 54 days between the date March 12 and the sightings of May 5. This spacing of major sightings seems to be related to a cycle of almost exactly 6.75 days and a longer one of (or close to) 54 days working together. The telltale pattern of these cycles appears during many periods of heightened UFO activity including the wave of sightings in Belgium of a large triangular craft in 1989 and 1990.

The peaks of this combination of cycles should trigger the next concentration of dramatic sightings on June 28 or 29 (Saturday or Sunday), and again on August 21 or 22 (Thursday or Friday). Since, as mentioned in my last MUFON article (June '96), August represents the month where peak UFO activity commonly occurs in a given year, the August date may be the more pronounced (June is often a low month for sightings). The extent of the effect on sightings at these peaks should last at least one day before and after the true peak date. The better of the two dates given for each of these peak times is most likely the later one (Sunday and then two months later on Friday), especially if the Wednesday peaks in March of '66-67 and '93-95 are related to my proposed cycle of 6.75 days.

A separate cycle that peaks roughly every two weeks should also produce sighting concentrations about a week before and after these prediction dates. Since this last cycle is expected to reach maximum intensity close to the peak of the 6.75 day cycle, and close enough to the 54 day peak for that to be a factor, these other dates could potentially be responsible for at least as many sightings (especially in June and July). The dates to look out for, besides the ones mentioned earlier, are June 22 (Sunday), July 5-6 (Sat/Sun), August 15-16 (Fri/Sat), and August 28-30 (Thur-Sat).

Interestingly, my best estimate of when the roughly two week cycle and the 6.75 day cycle last peaked in unison (on the same day and at the same time) turned out to be on May 26, 1997 (Memorial Day), at midday Pacific time. This happened to be when talk show host Art Bell and his wife had a UFO sighting. Two women independently saw something similar around the same time in New Mexico (see "Daylight Disc Hovers over Ruins at Mesa Verde" in the UFO Roundup newsletter of June 8, 1997). 

To get some idea of where to expect a possible UFO Flap around any one of these dates, a display of recent U.S. sighting locations is provided here. Since this map includes reports only from 1992 through April 1996, one hotspot area is not emphasized. A UFO flap in New Hampshire and Vermont (especially the former) lasting at least six weeks began January 15th, 1997. UFO Researcher Raymond Fowler remarked
"I don't think we've had anything like this since 1973." In October of that year much of the eastern half of the U.S. experienced a wave of sightings including a rash of reports along the New Hampshire-Massachusetts border. This year their back, making appearances up to eight times more often than usual, but further north than in 1973. Arizona, as mentioned earlier, has experienced many sightings this year since mid March.

There is no sure way to know exactly what areas may be effected during the next flap, but readers of my first MUFON article may recall that New Hampshire was assigned fourth place on my list of the likeliest states in the U.S. to experience a UFO. Some states, such as New Hampshire, are often high in UFO sightings. Although California is typically at the top of the list for the volume of reports coming out of a given state, it is not as special as one might at first think. California also leads the others in population. When population and land area is factored in it comes out more average then tops.

However, there are special areas in most states. Good spots can be found in California around Eureka on the north coast, Redding in the north part of the Central Valley, and Vista near San Diego. There is also a wide area of the southern coast from Santa Monica to Vandenberg AFB (Topanga Canyon falls into this range). For anyone looking for a UFO experience, it would be best to seek out such common sighting areas or locations that have had the most recent upswing in activity. The northern part of New Hampshire qualifies in both these regards (the Phoenix area of Arizona perhaps to a lesser extent).

Shortly after completing this article, another interesting story came my way that could be related to what I have presented here. While listening to the UFO Update given by Michael Lindemann (airs every Wednesday night) on the "Sightings on the Radio" program of May 14th (requires Real Audio to listen to the program archives). During the evening of May 5th (a peak day for my proposed 6.75 and 54 day cycles) an unknown object crashed into the hills surrounding Laguna Cartagena in the southwest part of Puerto Rico. A fire resulted, the military went in, sealed off the area, and investigated the site. There were reports of metal fragments being removed, but UFO Researcher Jorge Martin (local to the area) believes that these were only the remains of an automobile long discarded in the jungle. He also feels that the cause of this incident was most likely due to a meteorite. However, I find it interesting that this specific location has been the scene of many UFO sightings in Puerto Rico including one of the strangest UFO sightings of the past decade. Hopefully, more solid information will come to light regarding this event.

The following internet links provide information on other recent sightings that appear to fit in with the shorter cycles discussed in this article (of nearly 6.75 days and roughly two weeks). There were sightings on May 25 (Sunday) near Loco, Oklahoma, June 9-10 (Mon.-Tues.) & 6/20 (Friday) in Salida, Colorado, June 22 (Sunday) in Tempe, AZ, June 23 (Monday) between Tuscon and Phoenix, AZ, again on June 23 northwest of Las Vegas, NV (from the direction of Area-51), and yet another sighting June 23 over the north part of Huntsville, Alabama. The dates and times of these sightings would seem to indicate that the peak of the shortest cycle would occur during the afternoon on Sunday June 29th (within the time zones of the continental 48 states of the U.S.), with the peak effects lasting at least 28 hours before and after. On that day, during the time of the expected peak, there were dramatic sightings in Brazil. Late that same evening there was a spectacular sighting reported from Los Banos, California. There was also an odd midday unidentified object tracked on radar by an aircraft flying at high altitude between Denver and Aspen, Colorado on June 30. A week later (July 6th), when the shortest and two week cycle peaked, a crop circle was discovered in Utah (another circle was found the following day in New Jersey as mentioned at the end of this last linked article).

UPDATE: Based on analysis of five cycles measured in months (11+, 25-1/2, 32) or years (3.19 & 5.31) two cycles peak during the first quarter of 1998. I predict that the first few months of 1998 will be fairly active, UFO wise. After that things may calm down for awhile until the first half of 1999 (you may view a graphic display of the next nine years in regards to these cycles by clicking here). To allow readers of this article to view the best days to see a UFO based on my short period cycles I am including a graphic display for current peak days in regards to two short cycles (6.752475 & 6.85587). You may view this display by clicking here. However, please note that I have reevaluated the length of the 6.75 day cycle and at present the peak days are about 6 hours in advance of the peak days given in the earlier displays (they are now displayed correctly). I have also removed the 13.625 day cycle and replaced it with a 6.85587 day cycle. If you arrived here via this paragraph click here if you wish to go to the beginning of this article.

Some final notes. I'm taking this opportunity to make a correction to my June, 1996, MUFON Journal article. In that presentation I mentioned a flap of UFO activity that occurred in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania in early 1995, but it actually took place in the area of Harrisonburg, Virginia. This was caused by an error in the NUFORC data for late February of that year. Their director has recently informed me that they are in the process of correcting the mistake.
 

Also, related to my first MUFON Journal article of March, 1995, there are a few revisions I would like to make at this time as well. Coral Lorenzen with her husband Jim (both now deceased) first made public the idea of a five year UFO cycle back in 1968 (rather than '69) with the publishing of their book UFOs Over the Americas (rather than UFOs - the Whole Story).

Regarding my prediction of an extended period of greater than average UFO sightings in 1995, this did appear to be the case. There were more reports than usual through September of that year, but the duration of the increase lasted four months longer, beginning in August of 1994 (rather than December), and the peak occurred two months earlier than my prediction (February-March rather than April-May). My belief that the two shortest period cycles (mentioned in more detail in this article) would peak together every other weekend in April and May of '95 was roughly accurate. My present estimate of when these two cycles peaked together in 1995 is Monday, April 10. The best guess I had at the time for the effects of the peaks of these two cycles was Friday-Sunday for those two months, but now feel Sunday-Tuesday would have been the better days.
Instead of the likelihood that as many as one out of ten UFO witnesses choose to be bold enough to report their sighting, I now feel it is more likely that only one in one hundred witnesses do so (click here to see how I arrived at this figure). Peter Davenport, the director of the National UFO Reporting Center was recently quoted as saying he believes it to be one person in a million, but that was either a misquote or he was likely exaggerating to make a point.
In regards to the frequency of UFO sightings in the U.S. by state, a revised ranking list is now provided here. The original compilation was based on the Air Force Project Blue Book unknowns for the period 1953-1969. My new listing is more current, comprehensive, and precise.
Also, in the article I put emphasis on the southeastern part of Pennsylvania, but that portion of the state ranks second. The greatest number of sighting reports comes out of the southwestern quarter (where there is also a stronger presence of serious UFO researchers).
I leave you with an article by Bill Chalker in Australia on the importance of UFO waves and flaps in the study of UFOs from a scientific perspective (click here).

Please take a look at my REST OF THE BEST UFO related links, return to the UFO Tour page, or (if you just arrived here) enter my UFO Window homepage (has my initial group of links). Click here to go to the top of this page.