The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet empire has restored the
19th century concept of Europe stretching as far north-east as Russia, and as
far south-east as the Balkans.  Military arsenals are being reduced, and arms
negotiation are being overtaken by unilateral actions on all sides.  Western
business and industry are investing in Eastern Europe, as they did before,
although the German government is giving more aid to the former Soviet
Union and Eastern Europe than any other in the west.

Pan -European transport links are getting almost their first serious study since
the Romans stopped building their imperial roads.  Passport-less travel is
becoming a reality within a large part of Western Europe, which no longer
imposes visas on visitors from several central European countries.  Eastern
Europe is beginning to rival North Africa as a source of immigration into
Western Europe.

All the countries in the swath of Eastern Europe that runs from the Baltic to
the Balkans are now exhibiting some form of multi-party democracy and the
market economy.  But even though Europe has expanded in recent years, its
economic heart remains the countries which belong, or aspire to belong, to the
European Union.

The EU, as the Maastricht Treaty has renamed the older, less ambitious,
European Community, has become Europe's core institution because no other
club offers its members such an array of economic, social, political and
(potentially) defense benefits.  Turkey applied to join in 1987, Austria in 1989,
Malta and Cyprus in 1990, and Sweden in 1991.  Finland applied in 1992, and
so too did Norway.  Poland, Hungary, and the Czech and Slovak republics
have negotiated special associations with the EU that clearly state their
membership ambitions.  Romania and Bulgaria have followed suit.  Even
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania formed links with the then EC within days of
getting freedom after Soviet Communism's collapse in August 1991.  In the
aftermath of the crisis in former Yugoslavia may come other applications.

The collapse of central planning and of the Comecon trading system has
pushed Eastern Europe into a sharp recession.  It no longer has an easy Soviet
outlet for the industrial goods which it could not sell, on quality, in the West,
or farm produce that protectionists in Western Europe shut out.  The pain of
transition toward market economies has been made worse by very high
inflation and large-scale redundancies.

Eastern Europe's collective future is hard to read.  some parts of it could go
the successful way of economics in Asia.  with which they have in common a
high general level of education and skills.  Other parts could follow the Latin
America trend with hyperinflation and recession fueling populist nationalism.

The pattern will be mixed.  No country has a higher per head debt than
Hungary, but neither has any East European country been experimenting with
market reform for so long ( on and off since 1968 ).  Hungary has also
developed its financial and agricultural sector than its neighbors.  The relative
success of their economy has always made Hungarians fret about the less
happy fates of fellow Magyars in nearby Romania; this could again become a
source of nationalist tension,  Czechoslovakia was quite well placed to start off
the new era, wit h a low debt and a broad industrial range that has made it a
target for western venture capitalists.  However, after Czechoslovakia's "velvet
divorce" in 1993, economic disparities could fuel political tension between the
Czech Republic and less advanced Slovakia.

First to suffer an industrial crash in the 1980s, Poland has been the first to go
for bold economic reform, including currency convertibility.  but with an old
fashioned industry and a very fragmented and largely private farming sector, it
faces a big task in raising average living standards for what is the largest
population (38 million) in Eastern Europe.

De-communization has been less rapid in the Balkans.  Romania is likely to
remain politically un-stable for some time to come, in the wake of the
Ceausescu dictatorship which had the sole merit of leaving the country virtually
debt-free.  Bulgaria's non-communist opposition came to power only in autumn
1991 and faces the task of re-directing an economy that used to conduct half
its total trade with the Soviet Union.  Civil war has since cast a total blight
over former Yugoslavia, destroying the economic progress that had been made
in 1990.

Negotiations to enlarge the European club took second place in 1993 to the
EC's desire to implement its single market program and to ratify the
constitutional amendments on monetary and political union that on November
1st brought the European Union into being.  The hope then was that Austria,
Sweden, Finland, and Norway would be ready to join the union in 1995, with a
second wave of central and East European members around the turn of the
century.  Turkey, with a large, poor, Muslim, and semi-European population,
seemed unlikely to get in, even though its application was made in 1987.

For the moment, however, the 12 EU sates form a relatively small hard core, at the center of a series of concentric circles formed by other organizations with more limited functions.  NATO is not planning any imminent increase in membership beyond 16, but it is trying to extend - through "Partnerships of Peace " - its practical and political consultations to central European countries.  The council of Europe watches over democratic rights in its member countries (now numbering more than 30).  Overarching these bodies is the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE), whose 37 members (including USA and Canada) have pledged themselves to the peaceful settlement of disputes.