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Over the past century, America's economy has undergone a
fundamental structural change from a goods-producing economy to a service
economy. An increasing share of the nation's employment and economic output
comes from service-producing industries. This long-term shift is due to
changes in technology, productivity, consumer demand, demographics, and
trade. Surely we'll see more change in the future.
Highlights
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Roughly three-quarters of all Americans are employed in service-producing
industries.
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The United States has the most service-oriented economy among
the world's major industrial economies.
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Between 1946 and 1990, the goods-producing sector dropped
from 41% of nonfarm employment to 23%.
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During the 1980's, the service-producing sector added more
than 20 million jobs. The economy as a whole had a net increase of only
19 million jobs, because of declines registered in farming, mining, and
manufacturing.
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In 1991, for the first time in the nation's history, the
number of government workers (72% of them in state and local governments)
exceeded manufacturing employment.
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Although manufacturing employment is higher today than in
1950, its share of total employment has fallen significantly.
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U.S. manufacturers employ virtually the same number of production
workers today as they did in 1946 - about 12 million - but they produce
roughly five times as many goods.
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Since the mid-1980's, the cost of labor has tripled relative
to the cost of capital equipment. As a result, employers are replacing
workers with equipment.
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America's service industries spent nearly $900 billion on
information technology in the 1980's, more than 80% of the total amount
invested. The impact of that investment on productivity will be felt over
the coming decade.
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The current wave of service industry layoffs is not just
a symptom of the recent recession. It is "the beginning of a productivity
enhancing spree that will last until the end of the decade, and probably
beyond."
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FORECAST: The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts that 23
million out of the 24.6 million jobs expected to be created between 1990
and 2005 will be in the service producing industries.
Technological Change
Technology is the force of creative destruction. Technological
change creates new products, new jobs, and new industries - and transforms
or destroys others. Technological innovation is one of the fundamental
forces causing structural shifts in the economy. In the business world,
innovation has been reduced to a simple creed: innovate or perish.
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In 1992, total research and development expenditures in the
United States were estimated at $157 billion. The government spent 43%
of the total, industry spent 51%, and universities and nonprofits the rest.
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The United States spends more on research and development
than Japan, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy combined.
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In 1990, American research and development expenditures accounted
for about 2.7% of gross domestic product, slightly less than Japan (3.1%)
and Germany (2.8%).
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When nondefense research and development expenditures are
compared, the United States spends only 1.9% of GDP on R&D, far less
than Japan (3%) or Germany (2.7%).
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Of the $70 billion spent on research and development by the
federal government, roughly $41.5 billion (59%) was spent on research for
national defense.
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Industry performs about 70% of all R&D activities (about
$110 billion in 1992).
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U.S. spending on total R&D grew at an average annual
rate of 6.6% (in real terms) in the first half of the 1980s. From 1985
to 1992 that rate dropped to 1.1%.
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About half of all research and development spending is in
just five states: California, New York, Michigan, Massachusetts, and New
Jersey. New Mexico, however, has the highest proportion of R&D spending
as a share of its state economy (10.5% of gross state product).
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In 1991, nearly 107,000 patents were awarded in the United
States, up from 66,000 in 1980.
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The percent share of U.S. patents granted to foreigners rose
to 49% of the total in 1991, up from 38% in 1980.
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In every year since 1985, Japanese companies have filed more
patents in the United States than American companies.
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According to the latest available data, the United States
has about 949,300 scientists and engineers employed in research and development
activities. Japan has 461,000, Germany 176,400, France 120,700, and the
UK 102,600.
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"A great deal of work (research) shows that 95% of the stagnation
on wages in the 1980s is attributable to technology."
The Global Economy
The United States has the world's largest economy. But
America's relative economic dominance is waning. The fastest growing economies
and markets are overseas, mostly in developing countries. Even more that
in the past, global trade will play an important role in domestic economic
growth. In a global economy, businesses have to go where the growth is.
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The U.S. has less than 5% of the world's population, but
it produces about a quarter of the global economic output.
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In terms of purchasing power parity (a way of measuring economic
output), five of the world's twelve largest economies are developing countries
- China, India, Russia, Brazil, and Mexico.
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Over the past decade, the world's fastest growing economy
was China, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7% from 1983 to 1992.
Other high flyers were South Korea, Botswana, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore,
Malaysia, and Hong Kong, with growth rates ranging from 6% to 9%.
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Industrial economies are growing more slowly. The Big G-7
countries (a group of some of the world's most powerful industrial economies)
grew an average of 5.4% from 1950 to 1970 and 2.9% from 1970 to 1990.
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During the next 25 years, 95% of the growth in the world's
labor supply will be in developing countries.
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In 1991, gross hourly compensation in the manufacturing sector
averaged about $15.40 in the United States. According to one study, France,
Japan, Austria, the Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, and Germany
(the highest at $24.39) had higher labor costs.
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"One U.S. manufacturing job out of every six depends directly
on our exports. When growth slumps abroad. it drags down our economy with
it."
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Global trade and investment are key factors in global economic
growth. Global merchandise trade grew by 439% between 1965 and 1990. By
comparison, global production rose by 136%.
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The United States accounts for about 11.7% of world exports
and 15.4% of world imports.
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During the 1980s, some $300 billion of foreign direct investment
flowed into the U.S. economy.
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Of 650 overseas investments by U.S. manufacturers in 1991,
only 196 went to countries with low labor costs. Why? U.S. firms seek access
to the markets, technology, and skills in industrialized countries as well
as cheap labor.
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FORECAST: Global economic output in 1990 was about
$22 trillion. Assuming average annual growth of 3.3%, the global economy
(in 1990 dollars) will total about $58 trillion in 2020. Assuming slower
growth among the world's rich countries (the U.S., Japan, Europe, and the
other OECD nations), their share will fall from roughly 60% of global output
to about 40% by 2020. The U.S. share will fall from 24% to about 17%.
International Trade
International trade is a key engine of economic growth. Exports
create jobs. Imports benefit consumers by helping to keep prices low and
forcing American firms to compete in the international marketplace. In
any event, trade has come to represent a larger portion of the economy.
America is not only the world's largest exporter, it's also the largest
importer.
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In 1992, total exports accounted for 10.7% of U.S. gross
domestic product, up from 5.6% in 1970.
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From 1986 to 1990, U.S. merchandise exports accounted for
41% of the rise in GDP (in 1982 dollars). In 1990, they contributed 88%
of GDP growth.
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A U.S. Department of Commerce study estimates that 7.2 million
jobs were supported by merchandise trade in 1990, up from 5.6 million in
1986.
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U.S. merchandise exports generated 25% of the growth in the
nation's civilian jobs between 1986 and 1990. Each billion dollars of U.S.
merchandise exported in 1990 supported, on average, 19,100 U.S. jobs.
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In 1992, America was the world's biggest exporter of services,
with roughly 16% of the $1 trillion global total. In 1980, America accounted
for 9% of the global total, but held second place.
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America also has the biggest trade surplus in service and
was the second largest importer of services (after Germany) in 1992.
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The nation's leading export is aerospace.
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"Two thirds of U.S. exports are traded by multinational corporations."
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"About 25% of all U.S. exports and 15% of all U.S. imports
are actually transfers between parents of multinational corporations and
their affiliates abroad."
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In 1992, total foreign investment in the U.S. exceeded U.S.
investment abroad by a record $521 billion.
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Foreign investors hold more than $2.5 trillion in U.S. assets
while U.S. assets abroad total just over $2 trillion.
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In 1990, global international trade was estimated at $3.4
trillion (for the entire year). By contrast, $1 trillion a day is traded
in the world's foreign exchange markets.
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In 1992 the U.S. had a $96 billion merchandise trade deficit,
but it had a $61 billion trade surplus in services.
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America's leading trade partners are Canada (by far), Japan
and Mexico - in that order - for both exports and imports.
For further information, contact Global Markets
Limited.
CONTACT RAMESH C MANGHIRMALANI
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